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13 апреля в 10:39
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Estimating the demographics of Wizarding Britain in the Harry Potter series requires piecing together clues from the books, as J.K. Rowling provides no explicit census. The analysis below focuses on population size, age distribution, ancestry (pure-blood, half-blood, Muggle-born), and other social factors like occupation and class, grounded in textual evidence and reasonable assumptions.
Population Size
Hogwarts as a Proxy: Hogwarts, the primary wizarding school in Britain, has a student body that offers insight. Harry’s year (born ~1980) seems to have about 40 students (based on named Gryffindors like Harry, Ron, Hermione, Neville, etc., and assuming similar numbers in other houses). If each year has roughly 40 students across seven years, Hogwarts enrolls ~280 students at any time.

Generational Span: Wizards live longer than Muggles (Dumbledore is over 100, Griselda Marchbanks is older). Assuming a wizarding lifespan of ~100–150 years and a generational span of ~25 years, the school-age population (11–17) is a small fraction of the total. If Hogwarts students represent most young witches and wizards (some are homeschooled or attend abroad, but this seems rare), the total wizarding population can be estimated.

Scaling Up: In modern societies, the 11–17 age group is ~10–12% of the population. If Hogwarts’ 280 students are ~10% of the wizarding population, Britain’s magical community is ~2,800. Accounting for non-Hogwarts students, recluses, and others, a range of 3,000–5,000 is plausible. Rowling once suggested ~3,000 in an interview, supporting this estimate.

Ministry and Economy: The Ministry of Magic employs many wizards, but its departments (Auror Office, Misuse of Muggle Artefacts) are small, suggesting a lean bureaucracy for a small population. Diagon Alley and Hogsmeade, with limited shops, also imply a compact society.

Age Distribution
Youth (0–17): Using Hogwarts enrollment, 280–400 are school-age (11–17), with a similar number pre-Hogwarts (0–10), totaling ~600–800 minors (15–20% of the population). This aligns with a stable but low birth rate, as wizarding families (e.g., Weasleys aside) often have one or two children.

Adults (18–64): The working-age group dominates, likely 60–65% (1,800–3,250). Most characters (Ministry workers, shopkeepers, parents) fall here, reflecting a society centered on adult activity.

Elderly (65+): Wizards’ longevity suggests a significant elderly population, 15–20% (450–1,000). Figures like Dumbledore, Bathilda Bagshot, and Marchbanks highlight active older wizards, though some retire (e.g., to St. Mungo’s).

Trends: The population seems stable, not growing significantly. Voldemort’s war caused losses (First Wizarding War killed many, e.g., Order members), but recovery by Harry’s time suggests balance. Low birth rates (small family sizes) offset long lifespans.

Final Estimate
Total Population: 3,000–5,000.

Age: ~15–20% youth (600–1,000), ~60–65% adults (1,800–3,250), ~15–20% elderly (450–1,000).

Ancestry: ~50–60% half-blood (1,500–3,000), ~10–15% pure-blood (300–750), ~10–15% Muggle-born (300–750), ~1% Squibs/other (30–50).

Gender: ~50/50 (1,500–2,500 each).

Ethnicity: ~85–90% white, ~10–15% minority (reflecting 1990s Britain).

Geography: ~70% rural, ~30% urban/semi-urban.

This is a rough sketch, as Rowling’s world prioritizes narrative over statistical clarity. Gaps (e.g., exact Muggle-born rates, Squib numbers) require educated guesses, but the books’ scale—small, interconnected—supports a tight-knit, low-population society.

Estimating the demographics of the entire Wizarding World in the Harry Potter series is trickier than focusing on Britain, as J.K. Rowling provides even less detail about global wizarding populations. The books mention other schools (e.g., Beauxbatons, Durmstrang, Ilvermorny) and events (e.g., Quidditch World Cup), but hard numbers are scarce. Below, I’ll extrapolate from Wizarding Britain’s demographics (estimated at 3,000–5,000) and contextual clues to sketch the global wizarding population, covering size, age, ancestry, gender, ethnicity, and social factors. Assumptions will bridge gaps, grounded in the books’ logic and real-world parallels where applicable.
Total Population
Scaling from Britain: Wizarding Britain’s 3,000–5,000 is tied to Hogwarts’ 280 students. Other schools suggest similar structures. Beauxbatons (France) and Durmstrang (Northern Europe) seem comparable in size based on the Triwizard Tournament delegations (10–12 students each, implying similar total enrollment). Ilvermorny (North America) might be larger, given the U.S. population, perhaps ~500–700 students. Rowling named 11 major schools globally (e.g., Castelobruxo in Brazil, Mahoutokoro in Japan, Uagadou in Africa), with others possibly existing.

Regional Estimates:
Europe: Britain (3,000–5,000), France (4,000–6,000, similar to Britain), Northern Europe (Durmstrang’s region, ~5,000–8,000, covering multiple countries), Southern/Eastern Europe (10,000–15,000 combined, assuming smaller schools like Koldovstoretz in Russia). Total: ~22,000–34,000.

North America: Ilvermorny serves the U.S. and Canada. If it has 500–700 students (10–15% of the population, like Hogwarts), the region has ~30,000–50,000 wizards, reflecting a larger Muggle population (U.S. ~250M in the 1990s vs. UK ~60M).

South America: Castelobruxo serves Brazil and neighbors. Brazil’s population (150M in the 1990s) suggests ~20,000–30,000 wizards, assuming a similar wizard-to-Muggle ratio (1:10,000–20,000, based on Britain).

Asia: Mahoutokoro (Japan, 100M Muggle population) and schools in China/India (combined ~2B Muggle population) could serve massive regions. If Asia mirrors Britain’s ratio, China (60,000–100,000), India (50,000–80,000), Japan (5,000–10,000). Total: ~150,000–250,000.

Africa: Uagadou, the largest school (per Rowling), serves a continent (~800M Muggle population). If it enrolls ~1,000–1,500 students, the wizarding population is ~50,000–100,000.

Oceania: Australia/New Zealand (~20M Muggle population) likely has a smaller school, ~2,000–5,000 wizards.

Global Total: Summing regions: Europe (22,000–34,000), North America (30,000–50,000), South America (20,000–30,000), Asia (150,000–250,000), Africa (50,000–100,000), Oceania (2,000–5,000). Total: 274,000–469,000. Rounding for unlisted schools and hidden communities, 300,000–500,000 is a reasonable range.

Wizard-to-Muggle Ratio: In the 1990s, the global Muggle population was ~5–6 billion. A wizarding population of 300,000–500,000 implies ~1 wizard per 10,000–20,000 Muggles, consistent with Britain’s ratio and the secrecy of magical communities.

Age Distribution
Youth (0–17): Assuming global wizarding schools enroll most children aged 11–17 (10–12% of the population, like Hogwarts), and pre-school children (0–10) are a similar share, minors are ~20–25% globally. For 300,000–500,000 total, that’s 60,000–125,000 youth (30,000–62,500 school-age).

Adults (18–64): The working-age group, as in Britain, is likely ~55–60%, or 165,000–300,000. Most named characters (e.g., Ministry officials, Triwizard champions’ parents) are adults, and global events like the Quidditch World Cup draw adult crowds.

Elderly (65+): Wizards’ longevity (100–150 years) suggests ~15–20% are elderly, or 45,000–100,000. Longevity seems universal (e.g., Dumbledore’s age is unremarkable), though war losses (like Voldemort’s campaigns) may thin this group in some regions.

Trends: Birth rates vary. Wealthier regions (Europe, North America) likely have lower rates (1–2 children per family, like Britain), while others (Africa, parts of Asia) may have higher rates, balancing global stability. Wars and dark wizard conflicts (e.g., Grindelwald, Voldemort) cause periodic dips but don’t collapse populations.

Final Estimate
Total Population: 300,000–500,000.

Age: ~20–25% youth (60,000–125,000), ~55–60% adults (165,000–300,000), ~15–20% elderly (45,000–100,000).

Ancestry: ~60–70% half-blood (180,000–350,000), ~5–10% pure-blood (15,000–50,000), ~10–15% Muggle-born (30,000–75,000), ~1% Squibs/other (3,000–5,000).

Gender: ~50/50 (150,000–250,000 each).

Ethnicity: ~30–40% white, ~60–70% non-white (reflecting global Muggle diversity).

Geography: ~60–70% rural, ~30–40% urban/semi-urban.

This estimate assumes wizarding societies scale with Muggle populations but remain small for secrecy. Regional differences (e.g., Uagadou’s size, America’s openness) add complexity, but the books’ focus on interconnectedness (e.g., international cooperation) supports a cohesive global community.
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